As El Mencho’s death is currently receiving much attention in the media, I think many believe that the death of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG)’s leader is a victory for law enforcement. However, the truth behind what happened after his death is quite a bit more complicated than that. Shortly after the death of the CJNG leader, the cartel retaliated against the Mexican military for killing Oseguera and violence broke out across various parts of Mexico. At least 75 people died in the violence associated with the military raid and the subsequent retaliation against the military by the CJNG.
Removing one of the world’s most powerful and violent cartel leaders may seem like a positive thing. The CJNG had a large criminal network and engaged in smuggling fentanyl, methamphetamine and cocaine into the U.S. The CJNG also used extreme violence to intimidate the civilian population and government forces. Eliminating the influence of a powerful individual such as Oseguera is seen as a major accomplishment by law enforcement.
However, historical data supports the fact that removing cartel leaders does not solve the underlying problems of organized crime. It can sometimes even exacerbate the problem. When a powerful leader is removed, the remaining factions of the organization begin fighting each other to take over the entire organization. This increases the number of conflicts, creates new power struggles, and generates increased levels of violence.
Those fears are already being expressed concerning the consequences of Oseguera’s death. As long as there are few potential successors to Oseguera, then many high ranking members may try to replace him. As such, we can expect that there would be a violent power struggle among the various factions of CJNG that could increase the amount of danger to civilian populations residing within the affected zones.
Cartel violence isn’t confined to Mexico; it’s a global issue. Most of the drugs produced or smuggled by the CJNG are ultimately sold to consumers in the U.S. and other countries. Until a global solution to the demand for illicit drugs is developed, cartel organizations will continue to profit from their illicit activities.
Therefore, any strategy to effectively combat cartels cannot be based solely upon law enforcement actions or arrests. While law enforcement actions are important, they are ineffective in addressing the root causes of organized crime. The expansion and continuation of organized crime, with the factors being poverty, corruption, lack of legitimate economic opportunities and the high demand of illegal drugs from around the world all contribute to the growth of organized crime.
To me, the killing of a cartel leader (such as El Mencho) provides an example of what has been successful and unsuccessful in our anti-cartel efforts. It appears that we have learned that governments can identify and target large and dangerous criminal organizations; however, this also demonstrates the extent of the organization’s (cartel’s) network and the potential for violent responses by the remaining members of the organization.
Therefore, the Mexican situation clearly illustrates that organized criminal activity is an extremely complex issue that cannot be solved with one answer. In addition to weakening the organization of a cartel when a leader is removed from power, there is no assurance that the violence will stop. Thus, long term programs to create economically viable alternatives and encourage good government and international cooperation will be required to make a significant reduction in the level of violence created by organized criminal activity. In addition to this, until the above mentioned root causes of the violence are resolved, the cycle of violence most likely will continue. For many of the communities living in the middle of the violence, the continued violence is most likely their biggest worry.
